Bitcoin: a lump sum beat spreading it out in 68% of start months since 2014
Every start month in the real price history of Bitcoin — 134 of them, from Sep 2014 to Sep 2025.
Data as of September 10, 2026
Your result
68%
of all 12-month windows since 2014, investing all at once finished ahead.
- Median gap
- +23.4%
- Worst for lump sum
- -50.1%
- Best for lump sum
- +193.5%
Half of the 134 windows ended further ahead than this.
Starting Mar 2022: $6,254 against $12,544.
Starting Apr 2017: $68,556 against $23,360.
Price return — no separate dividend record for this asset. Cash still waiting to be invested earns nothing. Prices to Sep 2026.
Each bar is one start month: how much more, or less, the lump sum was worth at the end of its 12 months. Select a bar to draw that window below.
| Start year | Windows | Lump sum won | Median gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 5 | 0% | -29.8% |
| 2015 | 12 | 100% | +27.6% |
| 2016 | 12 | 100% | +55.0% |
| 2017 | 12 | 83% | +120.5% |
| 2018 | 12 | 17% | -22.8% |
| 2019 | 12 | 58% | +12.4% |
| 2020 | 12 | 100% | +90.3% |
| 2021 | 12 | 33% | -21.4% |
| 2022 | 12 | 50% | +2.6% |
| 2023 | 12 | 100% | +37.8% |
| 2024 | 12 | 100% | +22.5% |
| 2025 | 9 | 22% | -13.5% |
What the Bitcoin record actually says
Across 134 start months, a lump sum finished ahead 91 times and behind 43 times. The median gap was +23.4%: half of the 134 windows were wider than that, half narrower. The worst month to have gone all in was Mar 2022 ($6,254 against $12,544); the best was Apr 2017 ($68,556 against $23,360).
All of it computed from the same month-end closes the charts above draw — a description of what happened, not a forecast.
Change the amount or the spread
Open Bitcoin in the interactive backtest to try a different amount or a different number of months.
The same test on another asset
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About these Bitcoin numbers
This backtest shows what happened to a real price series and nothing more. It excludes trading costs, spreads, currency conversion and tax, assumes cash waiting to be invested earns nothing, and cannot tell you what the next window will do. It is information, not investment advice.
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