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Nvidia: a lump sum beat spreading it out in 71% of start months

Every start month in the real price history of Nvidia — 322 of them, from Jan 1999 to Sep 2025.

Data as of September 10, 2026

Your result

71%

of all 12-month windows since 1999, investing all at once finished ahead.

Median gap
+16.1%

Half of the 322 windows ended further ahead than this.

Worst for lump sum
-74.3%

Starting Jan 2002: $1,570 against $6,103.

Best for lump sum
+173.3%

Starting Oct 1999: $56,161 against $20,549.

Total return, dividends reinvested. Cash still waiting to be invested earns nothing. Prices to Sep 2026.

Every 12-month window, one bar each
Lump sum aheadSpreading ahead

Each bar is one start month: how much more, or less, the lump sum was worth at the end of its 12 months. Select a bar to draw that window below.

Lump-sum advantage by start year, over 12-month windows.
Start yearWindowsLump sum wonMedian gap
199913100%+72.0%
20001250%+8.6%
20011242%-5.1%
20021242%-18.4%
20031267%+9.3%
20041250%+4.6%
200512100%+33.4%
20061283%+17.0%
20071242%-8.0%
20081225%-33.5%
20091267%+14.0%
20101267%+13.5%
20111225%-11.5%
20121233%-2.0%
201312100%+15.0%
201412100%+8.2%
201512100%+33.7%
201612100%+61.3%
201712100%+29.3%
2018128%-18.3%
201912100%+41.8%
202012100%+34.1%
20211267%+14.3%
20221258%+12.8%
202312100%+61.7%
20241292%+8.8%
20259100%+23.1%

What the Nvidia record actually says

Across 322 start months, a lump sum finished ahead 228 times and behind 94 times. The median gap was +16.1%: half of the 322 windows were wider than that, half narrower. The worst month to have gone all in was Jan 2002 ($1,570 against $6,103); the best was Oct 1999 ($56,161 against $20,549).

All of it computed from the same month-end closes the charts above draw — a description of what happened, not a forecast.

Change the amount or the spread

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About these Nvidia numbers

This backtest shows what happened to a real price series and nothing more. It excludes trading costs, spreads, currency conversion and tax, assumes cash waiting to be invested earns nothing, and cannot tell you what the next window will do. It is information, not investment advice.

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